Technical Research & Training

Services Provided: Travel Demand Forecasting, Forecast Accuracy, Model Components Monitoring

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) initiated the Improving Travel Demand Forecasting Accuracy research project to build on the findings of National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 934 and address the nationwide variability and limitations in forecasting practices. The primary objective was to develop guidance and practical tools to improve the reliability of travel demand forecasts, thereby enhancing the quality of transportation planning and investment decisions. Insight Transportation Consulting Inc. (Insight) is supporting FHWA by examining current practices, identifying gaps through interviews with six diverse transportation agencies, and developing two distinct forecasting accuracy toolkits tailored to the needs of both Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) and project-level forecasters. 

The study revealed that while some agencies occasionally assess forecast accuracy, particularly at the project level, systemic reviews are rare due to long forecast horizons, evolving data sources, and staff turnover. The toolkit for regional forecasters emphasizes the annual review of key model components—socio-economic/land use data, transportation supply, travel demand, congestion levels, travel patterns, macro-trends, and emerging mobility options—using contemporary data such as location-based services (LBS) and crowd-sourced traffic data. The toolkit for project-level forecasts provides a procedural framework for initial and follow-up accuracy assessments that are adaptable to each agency’s definitions and thresholds of accuracy. Each tool includes data sources, deviation thresholds, and sample methods to streamline implementation. 

Currently being piloted by selected agencies, the toolkits aim to institutionalize continuous validation and reasonable monitoring practices, bridging the gap between methodological rigor and practical application. Insight’s contributions will help FHWA, and participating agencies better understand how to translate complex forecasting dynamics into actionable monitoring strategies. These lessons will continue to inform the refinement of model frameworks and elevate the standard of practice for travel demand forecasting nationwide. 

Services Provided:  Technical Expertise, Research & Analytical Skills, and Instruction  

Insight is beginning a project exploring innovative uses of the Federal Transit Administration's Simplified Trips-on-Project Software (STOPS). This software, pivotal in generating transit ridership forecasts for Capital Investment Grant (CIG) projects seeking discretionary funding, is being used in other ways due to its national scope, FTA sponsorship, and ability to accept publicly available transit networks and geospatial data. The team, in collaboration with FTA, will document the diverse applications of STOPS across the United States since its release in 2013. 

In the second phase of the project, the team will develop detailed case studies in two distinct metropolitan areas. These case studies will serve as practical examples of STOPS' effective utilization in transit planning. The selection of these case studies will be based on several criteria, including the soundness of the procedures used, the availability and types of local data, and the potential for the findings to be applied in other locations. The team will work closely with FTA staff and local agencies to ensure that the case studies are robust, insightful, and provide valuable information for future applications of STOPS. 

Finally, the team will create a series of webinars and presentations to share their findings and insights. These materials will be developed based on the technical memorandums produced during the research and will include interactive elements to engage the audience. The goal of these presentations is to disseminate the findings to a wider audience and stimulate discussion on the innovative uses of STOPS. By the end of this project, the team aims to contribute significantly to the understanding and application of STOPS, paving the way for future enhancements and applications in the transportation planning industry. 

Services Provided: Traffic Forecast Data Analysis, Statistical Analysis

Insight is leading an effort for the Metropolitan Council to evaluate the accuracy and robustness of long-range traffic forecasts. This project builds on decades of traffic forecasting research and marks the third regional forecast accuracy assessment conducted in the Twin Cities, and the first to incorporate the methodological advancements from the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 934.

The objective of this work is to assess the reliability of past traffic forecasts, improve modeling procedures, and develop tools to better communicate forecast uncertainty to planners and decision-makers. The analysis will enhance both the Met Council’s and Minnesota Department of Transportation’s (MnDOT) understanding of how forecasted and actual traffic volumes have aligned over time, providing a critical foundation for future infrastructure planning. The key activities are described below: 

• Compiling a robust database of past traffic forecasts, traffic counts, and project metadata. Forecasts will be classified using NCHRP 934’s Silver-level archiving standards, including forecast year, actual traffic counts, facility types, area types, and forecasting methods. Insight created an innovative ChatGPT- and Python-powered tool to extract key forecast data from over 450 MnDOT traffic reports—many of them lengthy and scanned—into a structured, tabular format.  
• Applying multiple statistical techniques—such as percent difference from forecast (PDFF), quantile regression, and longitudinal comparisons—to quantify forecast accuracy. This analysis will be compared against prior regional assessments to measure improvement over time. Insight will also analyze broader economic variables that may affect forecasting accuracy and develop reproducible scripts and visualization tools using R and Tableau for ongoing model performance tracking. 
• Providing recommendations to improve both forecasting procedures and how forecast uncertainty is communicated. Insight will leverage quantile regression and user-focused visualization methods to support decisions under uncertainty and will suggest refinements to the Met Council’s travel demand model based on systematic errors identified in the forecast database.

This study provides the Met Council with a highly defensible and transparent record of forecast accuracy, strengthens the credibility of travel demand models in future decision-making, and equips planners with tools to explain and manage forecast uncertainty in public and interagency settings.

Insight’s leadership in this project showcases its unmatched expertise in travel demand model evaluation and its ability to merge technical rigor with actionable, policy-relevant recommendations. The methodologies and tools developed will be scalable for use by MPOs and DOTs nationwide.